Obama has been compared to FDR and to JFK and a lot of people are pinning a lot on him. Many people are drawing similarities between our current economic situation and the Great Depression of the 1930's, a similarity only heightened by Obama's plans for spending:
Obama: "Creating and saving 2.5 million jobs, jobs rebuilding our infrastructure, our roads, bridges, modernizing our schools and creating the clean energy infrastructure of the 21st century .... '' [emphasis added]
http://www.necn.com/Boston/Business/2008/11/24/Obama-Stimulus-bill-should/1227570670.html
This is a good thing, don't get me wrong, but the WPA and the TVA, while valuable, didn't end the Depression. The Depression was truly ended by a much larger deficit spending period which was the build up and eventual entry into WWII. And therein lies the problem.
The current administration has spent trillions on the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. When historians look back through the clearer lens of history I would not be surprised to find that the war spending helped prop up a largely unsustainable growth that helped keep the bubble growing until it finally started to leak on October 1st, 2008 that lead to the drop that ended on October 10th and left us in a bear market where the market seems stable when it's only had a 200 point swing up and down.
But the well is fairly tapped out. Our country needs the infrastructure work. Don't believe me, turn to professionals like the American Society for Civil Engineers and their report card from 2005 on the nations infrastructure. Here are some choice selections:
| Subject | 2001
Grade | 2005 Grade | Comments |
| Bridges | C | C | Between 2000 and 2003, the percentage of the nation's 590,750 bridges rated structurally deficient or functionally obsolete decreased slightly from 28.5% to 27.1%. However, it will cost $9.4 billion a year for 20 years to eliminate all bridge deficiencies. Long-term underinvestment is compounded by the lack of a Federal transportation program. |
| Dams | D | D | Since 1998, the number of unsafe dams has risen by 33% to more than 3,500. While federally owned dams are in good condition, and there have been modest gains in repair, the number of dams identified as unsafe is increasing at a faster rate than those being repaired. $10.1 billion is needed over the next 12 years to address all critical non-federal dams--dams which pose a direct risk to human life should they fail. |
| Roads | D+ | D | Poor road conditions cost U.S. motorists $54 billion a year in repairs and operating costs--$275 per motorist. Americans spend 3.5 billion hours a year stuck in traffic, at a cost of $63.2 billion a year to the economy. Total spending of $59.4 billion annually is well below the $94 billion needed annually to improve transportation infrastructure conditions nationally. While long-term Federal transportation programs remain unauthorized since expiring on Sept. 30, 2003, the nation continues to shortchange funding for needed transportation improvements. |
| Schools | D- | D | The Federal government has not assessed the condition of America's schools since 1999, when it estimated that $127 billion was needed to bring facilities to good condition. Other sources have since reported a need as high as $268 billion. Despite public support of bond initiatives to provide funding for school facilities, without a clear understanding of the need, it is uncertain whether schools can meet increasing enrollment demands and the smaller class sizes mandated by the No Child Left Behind Act. |
| Transit | C- | D+ | Transit use increased faster than any other mode of transportation--up 21%--between 1993 and 2002. Federal investment during this period stemmed the decline in the condition of existing transit infrastructure. The reduction in federal investment in real dollars since 2001 threatens this turnaround. In 2002, total capital outlays for transit were $12.3 billion. The Federal Transit Administration estimates $14.8 billion is needed annually to maintain conditions, and $20.6 billion is needed to improve to "good" conditions. Meanwhile, many major transit properties are borrowing funds to maintain operations, even as they are significantly raising fares and cutting back service. |
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See whole report here)
Obama's plan is good, it's necessary, but it's not a panacea. The path to road construction, bridge replacement, any construction project are long. Open the spigot of a billion dollars for replacing bridges and that money won't show up for construction workers for months.
I have faith in Obama. But I fear for how the populace will respond when it's not magically fixed overnight.